OptionSwap - Training for CFA, FRM & other finance certifications

Thursday, January 1, 2009

Free Online Quant Review Session for CFA L1-2008 on 22 Nov 2008

OptionSwap is offering FREE online Quant review session on 22 November 2008, for the CFA(USA) L1- December, 2008 exams.

The unique features of this review session are:
  1. Classes will be conducted by experienced faculty and MBA’s from top business schools with experience in global financial markets.
  2. Faculty includes Charterholders and Level III candidates.
  3. Faculty have past experience of successfully guiding more than 100 students for the CFA exam, through various online and offline platforms
  4. Current students include people from UBS, HSBC, Deloitte, GE Money, ex-Fannie Mae, Bank of America etc.
  5. First 100 students to register will receive a copy of SPECIAL course material for FREE which will help you for the CFA L1 exam.
Please email: info@optionswap.com with your name, email address and mobile number to register for the session. Visit http://www.optionswap.com for more details.

You will need the following to attend the Online review class for Quant:

  1. PC / Laptop
  2. Headphones / Speaker
  3. Mic (optional, but recommended)
  4. Internet connection – preferably 256 kbps or better
  5. Browser – Internet explorer or Firefox


Tuesday, August 12, 2008

Global Recession ? - Sometimes we hope to be wrong

On February 15th we discussed how the US deficit spending was not going be useful to curb the current crisis. See this previous post.The emerging markets so-called "decoupling-theory" has been tested, as predicted. India has been no exception, with the market correcting sharply.

Another idea we discussed in our CFA class in June'08, was if a global recession would happen. Going by the financial press and the TV analysts, it will not happen.
But then, following the herd seldom makes significant and sustainable alpha.

Whether it happens or not, it MUST be a scenario for which every VaR or EVT model worth its name, must account for. As a wise man once said: " The devil is in the fat tail. Stress test to save on stress later".

Cost-Cutting in New York, but a Boom in India

This article in NY Times talks about the financial outsourcing phenomenon that we have been frequently discussing in our CFA / FRM classes. As Prime Minister Manmohan Singh famously said, "No power on earth can stop an idea whose time has come".

You can find the complete article here

Some ideas from the article:

"Wall Street’s losses are fast becoming India’s gain. After outsourcing much of their back-office work to India, banks are now exporting data-intensive jobs from higher up the food chain to cities that cost less than New York, London and Hong Kong, either at their own offices or to third parties.

Bank executives call this shift “knowledge process outsourcing,” “off-shoring” or “high-value outsourcing.” It is affecting just about everyone, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, Credit Suisse and Citibank — to name a few.

The jobs most affected so far are those with grueling hours, traditionally done by fresh-faced business school graduates — research associates and junior bankers on deal-making teams — paid in the low to mid six figures.

Cost-cutting in New York and London has already been brutal thus far this year, and there is more to come in the next few months. New York City financial firms expect to hand out some $18 billion less in pay and benefits this year than 2007, the largest one-year drop ever. Over all, United States banks will cut 200,000 employees by 2009, the banking consultancy Celent said in April.

The work these bankers were doing is not necessarily going away, though. Instead, jobs are popping up in places like India and Eastern Europe, often where healthier local markets exist.

In addition to moving some lower-level banking and research positions to support bankers and analysts in New York and London, firms are shipping some of their top bankers from those cities to faster-growing developing markets to handle clients there.

Owing in part to credit weaknesses and billion-dollar charges from the subprime crisis, “people who were off-shoring high value jobs are increasing the intensity of that, and people who were not are now in the planning stage,” said Andrew Power, a financial services partner at Deloitte Consulting.

Wall Street banks started cautiously sending research jobs to India a few years ago, hiring employees by the handful and running pilot programs with firms like Copal, Office Tiger, Pipal Research and Tata Consultancy Services.

In 2003, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley said they planned to move a few dozen research jobs to Mumbai, Lehman Brothers was working on a pilot program to create research presentations in India and both Merrill Lynch and Goldman Sachs said they had not moved any research to the country.

Five years later, the trickle is a flood. Third-party firms say they are seeing a 20 to 40 percent upswing in business this year alone.

Morgan Stanley has about 500 people employed in India doing research and statistical analysis. About 100 of Goldman Sachs’ 3,000 employees in Bangalore are working on investment research.

JPMorgan has 200 analysts in Mumbai working for its investment banking operations around the world, doing industry analysis, and compiling data and charts for marketing materials. It has an additional 125 analysts in Mumbai supporting the bank’s global research division.

Citigroup employs about 22,000 people in India, several hundred of whom work in investment research. Deutsche Bank has 6,000 employees in India, according to the bank’s Web site. Deutsche started a pilot program to outsource some research in 2003, and would not provide any update.

Theoretically, as much as 40 percent of the research-related jobs on Wall Street, tens of thousands of jobs, could be sent off-shore, said Deloitte’s Mr. Power, though the reality will be less than that.

The jobs off-shore are more likely to come from the investment bank and trading divisions of Wall Street firms, rather than the sales side, which produces analyst reports about companies and industries, said Andy Kessler, a former analyst who has written several books about Wall Street."

Friday, February 22, 2008

Derivative Pricing

According to BIS, there are some $420 trillion worth of outstanding derivative contracts as of 2007. Interestingly, the GDP of the rich man's club of G-7 countries is around $40 trillion. Theoretically, this means that any trouble in the global derivatives market, will make the recent sub-prime and mono-line insurance meltdown, look like child's play.

Michael Lewis quoting Nassim Nicholas Taleb says:
"In the past two years, Taleb has co-authored a pair of papers that have appeared in the sort of academic journals that originally published the Black-Scholes model. He and his co-author attack the model head-on in its own language (math), and as much as call for a retraction of the Nobel Prize awarded to Myron Scholes and Robert Merton for their work in creating the model. "This is what I'm saying to Merton and Scholes," Taleb says. "You guys are just parasites. You're not bringing anything useful to the market. You are lecturing birds on how to fly. You're watching them fly. And then you're taking credit for it."

The fundamental issue that is being raised is that the Black-Scholes model is inadequate for accurate pricing of risk and hence there is a possibility of extreme events testing the robustness of the global derivatives market.

Nassim Taleb's problem is not that his point of view is invalid. But having made his point, he refuses to move on. While it is possible that Black-Scholes may be inadequate or downright incorrect, the way forward is to build a new, better and robust model, which the industry can use with confidence.

To quote Sir Newton: "If I have seen further than other men, it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants."


For the complete article by Lewis see: Black-Scholes

Friday, February 15, 2008

Is $150 bn Deficit spending going to save the US economy ?

Bill Gross, says not completely.
"The $150 billion "return to sender" deficit plan advanced by Bush and the Congress, for instance, amounts to just 1% of GDP and is labeled temporary. It will be of marginal benefit to long-term prosperity. To understand why, consider that the productivity of our economy ultimately depends on its ability to 1) innovate, and 2) save and invest, and that there is little of either in this stimulus package. Some have even suggested – and with my somewhat grudging concession – that this package will help the Chinese economy more than ours. Americans will use the rebates to buy Chinese imports offered at Wal-Mart and the $150 billion will then wind its way inevitably back to Asian coffers."

Some interesting points:
1. The US Fed is caught between the Devil and the Abyss. If it cuts the interest rates, it incentivises the leveraged spending behavior of the American consumer which created the credit crisis in the first place and can lead to future price bubbles in other asset classes. Also a cut in the interest rates will force the Asian central banks and Gulf states, to evaluate the falling yields on their current dollar reserves and increase the incentive for diversification into alternate currencies like Euro, Pound etc.

2. On the other hand, if the Fed does not cut the rates, it will risk being accused of inaction during a period when economy is showing signs of a recession. 2008 being an election year in US, the pressure would be immense to salvage the economy. In addition, a full blown recession, of which there is an even chance according to the great (?) Greenspan, will test the so-called "Decoupling of Emerging Market's theory" to the fullest extent. With the increased correlation between financial markets across the world and the tangled web of leverage everywhere, it will not take long for the above theory to be tested, once US enters a recession.

3. Moral of the story - Damned if you do and damned if you don't !

4. So who is responsible for this mess? Reminds of a line from the movie Beowulf about "the sins of the fathers".


For the complete article by Bill Gross see: Better late than never

CFA (AIMR) Institute permits Indian candiadates for Dec 2008 exams

"CFA (AIMR) Institute permits people within India to enroll in the CFA Program and register to sit for the June and December 2008 exams at test centers outside of India. "

Please see the site below for more details:
http://www.cfainstitute.org/aboutus/worldwide/asiapac/india.html

This means that students can take the exam at nearby locations like Khatmandu, Colombo, Bangkok etc.

Friday, February 8, 2008

Introduction

Hi

This is a forum where the current and prospective students of OptionSwap can interact and discuss relevant issues in finance. I will also post from time to time, articles of interest that will be useful to students and general public.

Welcome aboard and happy learning !

Cheers,
Your Friendly Neighbourhood Mod